10/31/2023 0 Comments World energy outlook 2015 download![]() ![]() This paper aims to advance this debate by reviewing world energy scenarios and analyzing the driving forces in the global energy market. Since the 1970s, the uncertainties existing in energy markets, especially in oil markets, have been of prime practical significance (Yergin 2011). And finally, technological development in renewable energies as well as in oil and gas upstream sector is recognized as a technological driving force.įor decades, long-term changes in the production and consumption of energy resources have been the focus of attention of energy economists (Cherp et al. Investment in infrastructures, financial shocks, consumer behavior and energy efficiency are marked as economic driving forces, while global governance and geopolitical relationships are identified as the global energy market’s political driving force. Among the 10 global energy driving forces by 2040, population growth rate and climate change are identified as social and environmental driving forces, respectively. The study applies mathematical principles to quantify the rational judgments of an expert panel in social, technological, economic, environmental and political framework through cross-impact analysis. ![]() Based on the foresight semiquantitative method, global energy driving forces which play significant roles in reshaping the world energy future by 2040 have been identified. The study analyzes each energy scenario’s outputs and outlooks by 2040 such as gross domestic product growth, technology developments, primary energy demand by sector, energy supply by fuel, energy intensity and carbon emissions. ![]() This study presents a novel comparative analysis on global energy scenarios in terms of main characteristics, scenario building frameworks and time frames. ![]()
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